IMF Global Growth Forecast: AI Support and Energy Risks

What does the IMF expect for global growth?

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026. That is higher than the 3% it projected in July, but lower than the 3.5% growth rate reported for 2025. For 2027, the IMF kept its forecast at 3.4%. ¹

A growth forecast estimates how much economic activity may increase over a period. It is not a promise, and it can change if conditions shift. The IMF released these projections during its annual meetings in Bangkok. ¹

Why is AI investment helping the economy?

The IMF says investment related to artificial intelligence gave the economy an extra boost to demand. That helped activity in the first half of 2026 hold up better than expected, despite the Middle East conflict and trade tensions. ¹

AI investment partly offset pressure from higher energy costs, but it was not a complete shield from them. The supplied reporting does not quantify how much of the forecast change came from AI investment alone. ¹

How has the Middle East conflict affected the outlook?

The conflict disrupted energy supplies and contributed to higher energy costs. The IMF says oil supplies were rerouted away from the Strait of Hormuz, while emergency energy stocks were released; these steps helped contain the impact on oil prices. ¹²

The IMF’s estimate assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 and return to its pre-war state by October 2027. It reported that Gulf crude exports averaged 88% of their pre-conflict level in September, as traffic increased. These are assumptions and conditions described in the report, not guarantees about what will happen. ¹

Why does the IMF say resilience could weaken?

Resilience means the ability to withstand a setback and keep functioning. The IMF says the global economy has handled the conflict better than feared so far, but the measures that helped may not be available at the same scale next time. ²

Emergency energy stocks have been depleted, according to the Guardian’s account of the IMF report. The IMF also warned that high public debt and budget deficits in many countries could leave governments with less room to shield consumers if prices rise again. It cautioned that further geopolitical shocks could quickly affect energy prices and supplies. ²

What does the forecast say about inflation and prices?

The IMF kept its inflation outlook for 2026 at 4.7% and raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.1%, from 3.9% in July. Its earlier forecast had assumed the Strait would reopen by mid-July and conditions would broadly return to pre-war levels by March 2027. ¹

These are global forecasts, not predictions for any one country or household. The reports identify energy supply, prices and government capacity as risks, but the supplied sources do not give country-by-country estimates of effects on household costs. ¹²

What could change the IMF’s outlook?

The outlook could be affected by further geopolitical shocks, energy supply disruptions, or a different course for the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The IMF warns that dwindling energy inventories could allow new disruptions to pass quickly into prices and supply. ²

The available reporting gives the IMF’s projections and key risks, but does not establish how likely each risk is or how large its effect would be. The forecasts may be revised as circumstances change. ¹²