How the Thunder could finish this season with No. 1 seed AND the No. 1 pick

Thunder remain near the top

The Oklahoma City Thunder have opened the season 8-2 despite significant injuries. Jalen Williams could miss the year with a fractured fibula and dislocated left ankle, Cason Wallace is out indefinitely with a torn labrum, and Chet Holmgren is expected to miss eight to 10 weeks with a patellar tendon tear in his right knee.

Oklahoma City is one game behind the 10-2 Los Angeles Lakers and half a game behind the 9-2 San Antonio Spurs. The Warriors, Timberwolves and Rockets are each 8-3, while the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers are also within reach.

A Clippers pick swap opportunity

The Thunder have the right to swap first-round picks with the Clippers, who have started 2-7. If Los Angeles cannot recover, Oklahoma City could benefit from its draft position and add a high lottery pick to an already strong roster.

Brandon Ingram is expected to make his season debut, which could help the Clippers. But the team faces a difficult season and has draft picks to recoup following its punishment for Kawhi Leonard salary-cap circumvention.

How the revised lottery works

The Jazz, Kings and Bucks are each 1-9 and currently in the so-called relegation zone. The Bulls are 1-8 and the Nets are 2-8. The Kings and Bulls control their own 2027 first-round picks, while the Bucks and Nets do not.

The favorable outcome for Oklahoma City

For the Thunder, the ideal outcome would be for the Clippers to miss the play-in tournament without finishing among the three teams with the worst records. That position could give the pick strong lottery odds.

At baseline, the remaining non-play-in teams have an 8.1 percent chance of the No. 1 overall pick, a 24 percent chance of a top-three selection, a 39 percent chance of a top-five pick and a 73 percent chance of a top-10 pick. The selection could fall as low as No. 16.