Fossil fuel emissions are down in 2026. Green energy isn’t the reason
A projected emissions decline
Global emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to decrease by 0.4 percent in 2026, according to new projections. That would be a drop of about 0.16 gigatons of carbon dioxide compared with 2025.
From 2019 to 2025, emissions grew by an average of 0.8 percent each year. The projected reversal marks a break from that trend.
Fuel prices drive the change
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, off Iran’s coast, have been disrupted. The disruption has pushed oil and gas prices higher around the world. Researchers reporting November 9 in Nature Climate Change say elevated oil prices linked to the Iran war are probably behind the emissions decrease.
The dip may not last
Peters said the energy transition is not yet substantial enough to make emissions fall on its own. The 2026 decline may therefore reflect expensive fuel rather than a lasting shift to green energy.
Key points
- Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4 percent in 2026.
- The expected decline equals about 0.16 gigatons of carbon dioxide from 2025.
- Higher oil and gas prices followed disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Researchers say the decrease may be temporary and tied to the Iran war.