What comes next for Israel as election blocs struggle to form a government?

The election arithmetic

Pappe says another reading separates the anti-Netanyahu Jewish bloc from the Palestinian parties. On that basis, he writes, Netanyahu’s 53 seats are five more than the anti-Netanyahu Jewish bloc’s total.

Possible coalition routes

An anti-Netanyahu coalition could include the two Palestinian parties, but Pappe says its leading Jewish politicians, including Gadi Eisenkot, have ruled out doing so. He argues that this would leave Palestinian parties without a meaningful role in government formation.

Another possibility would be to seek support from religious Orthodox parties. Pappe says that could require exemptions from military service for Orthodox youth and funding for their learning centres.

A unity government involving Netanyahu is also discussed. Pappe notes that a law prevents Netanyahu from serving as a minister while he remains a defendant in an ongoing trial, though the legislation does not apply to a prime minister.

Risks of political instability

Pappe points to Netanyahu’s 2020 rotation agreement with Benny Gantz, which he says Netanyahu broke before Gantz could become prime minister. That breakdown led to new elections, which Netanyahu won.

Pappe warns that political leaders could seek public support by reigniting conflict with Iran and Hezbollah, or continuing violent policies in Gaza and the West Bank. These are scenarios he raises, not outcomes established by the election.

Debates beyond Israel

Pappe describes Israeli Jewish society as deeply divided and says that division threatens political stability, economic prosperity and a constructive regional and international strategy. He also argues that Palestinian citizens may face pressure to decide whether their political future lies in an Israeli or Palestinian space.

He predicts that international debate about Zionism could be affected by Israeli policies toward Palestinians. Pappe says the Green Party in Britain’s move to define Zionism as racism, despite wide condemnation, may gain validity over time.

In Pappe’s view, the underlying divisions in the Zionist project could deepen and eventually contribute to its demise. He hopes that any resulting political reality would benefit people living in historical Palestine and the wider region.