Why Baltimore Orioles Should Move on From Trevor Rogers Before Free Agency
Rogers faces a major decision
Rogers’ contract reached its final year in 2026, and Baltimore offered him a qualifying contract worth $23.15 million. He has just over a week to decide whether to remain with the club, according to the article.
His standout 2025 campaign came during a difficult season for the Orioles. In 18 appearances, Rogers recorded an ERA below 2.00, a 0.903 WHIP and 103 strikeouts. The article compares that showing with his 2021 season for the Marlins, when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and made his only All-Star team.
Signs of decline remain
The article argues that Rogers’ later season raised questions about his durability and value. He averaged 0.43 fewer innings per start, while his ERA increased by 2.22. His fastball also lost velocity and arm-side movement, which fell from 11.5 to 10 inches.
Over a six-game stretch around the middle of the year, he gave up 29 earned runs. Still, he finished better: his ERA dropped from 5.30 to 4.03 over his final 15 games. Against left-handed hitters, opponents batted .186 and posted a .515 OPS.
Trade alternatives for Baltimore
The article names Reid Detmers as one possible replacement. With the Angels, he made 32 starts and posted a 3.36 ERA over 185 innings, striking out 28.5% of batters and walking 6.5%. His projected 2027 salary is $7.5 million, with about $20 million expected across two arbitration years.
Ryan Weathers is another option, with a projected arbitration salary of $3.1 million. Over his last 262⅓ innings, he held opponents to a 47.2% ground-ball rate and had a mid-three ERA across a career-high 25 starts. Baltimore previously held extensive trade talks with the Yankees about Adley Rutschman, the article notes.
McClanahan and contract outlook
Shane McClanahan is also proposed as a candidate. After missing two seasons during Tommy John recovery, he struck out 106 batters in 188 innings, went 10-7 and recorded a 3.36 ERA. The article describes the Baltimore-born left-hander as a strong option if he stays healthy.
Rogers is expected to decline Baltimore’s offer, and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN projects a four-year, $76 million contract. The article recommends that the Orioles avoid bidding against teams such as the Cardinals and White Sox and instead seek a less expensive replacement.
Key points
- Baltimore offered Trevor Rogers a qualifying contract worth $23.15 million for 2027.
- Rogers recorded an ERA below 2.00 and 103 strikeouts in 18 games during 2025.
- The article identifies Reid Detmers, Ryan Weathers and Shane McClanahan as possible alternatives.
- Kiley McDaniel of ESPN projects Rogers could receive a four-year, $76 million contract.