COP31 starting in Turkey: The agenda as climate pressures grow

Climate impacts raise the stakes

Antalya will host the 31st UN climate talks, with Turkey as host and Australia leading negotiations. Delegates are due to meet from November 9 to 20, as climate emergencies increase pressure to turn promises into action.

Carbon emissions continue to rise. The UN has concluded that keeping warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, the goal set at COP21 in 2015, is no longer possible.

Fossil fuels remain central

A transition away from coal, oil and gas is again expected to dominate discussions. Countries have yet to agree on whether, or how quickly, to make that shift.

Victor said countries could do more, but cautioned against expecting too much from this summit. COP agreements require unanimity, allowing any country to block broad resolutions, while wars, trade disputes and economic problems add to the challenge.

Smaller alliances may act

Victor sees potential in smaller partnerships of governments and businesses working on practical solutions in areas such as aviation, shipping and electromobility. He described these groups as “clubs,” and said that while the Paris process must continue, much of the work will happen through them.

Clean energy and industry goals

The International Energy Agency found that faster electrification could reduce energy bills for fuel-importing countries by more than $400 billion by 2035, compared with 2025 levels. The prospect may appeal to places that rely on fossil fuel imports, including Germany and the European Union.