Why these midterm races could still reshape the House and Senate balance of power
Senate control and Mississippi
Democrats are set to begin next year with at least 54 Senate seats, compared with 44 for Republicans. Two Senate contests have not been called; one was long considered competitive, while the other became an unexpected toss-up.
In Mississippi, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democrat Scott Colom. Thousands of mail ballots remain outstanding and may legally arrive within five days of the election, while an unknown number of affidavit ballots require eligibility checks. Both candidates have predicted victory.
House contests awaiting decisions
In Maine’s 2nd District, Republican former Gov. Paul LePage is competing with Democrat Matt Dunlap after Rep. Jared Golden chose not to seek reelection. Dunlap conceded, but LePage fell just short of 50%, so state officials say a ranked-choice tabulation will begin Nov. 9.
Florida’s 9th District is the only one of four districts shifted right by state Republicans that has not yet been projected as a Democratic win. Rep. Darren Soto is facing Republican Dan Green. In Louisiana’s 6th District, redrawn after the Supreme Court voided the state’s maps, no candidate is near a majority under the jungle primary system, leaving a runoff next month possible.
Close races across the country
Colorado Republicans Jeff Hurd and Lauren Boebert face Democratic challengers Dwayne Romero and Eileen Laubacher in the state’s 3rd and 4th Districts. Boebert switched districts two years ago after narrowly winning reelection in a more competitive seat in 2022.
In Minnesota’s 1st District, Republican Rep. Brad Finstad faces Democrat Jake Johnson after winning by 17.2 points in 2024. State law allows a recount request when a candidate is behind by less than 0.25 points. Tennessee’s Scott DesJarlais and North Carolina’s Greg Murphy, Virginia Foxx, David Rouzer, Mark Harris and Pat Harrigan are also facing Democratic challengers.
Other Florida and New York races
Florida’s 7th District features Republican Ryan Elijah, who defeated Rep. Cory Mills in a primary, against Democrat Bale Dalton. In the 26th District, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart faces Nicole Locklin; in the 27th, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces Eliott Rodriguez, a former Miami-area news anchor.
Salazar drew attention earlier in the year by warning that President Trump’s immigration policies could alienate Latino voters. In New York’s 21st District, Republican Anthony Constantino is running against Democrat Blake; no further details about that contest are provided.
Key points
- Democrats are set to hold at least 54 Senate seats, while Republicans have 44.
- Mississippi’s Senate race remains unsettled as election officials await ballots and check voter eligibility.
- Maine’s 2nd District will undergo ranked-choice tabulation beginning Nov. 9.
- Several House races remain unprojected, including contests in Florida, Colorado, Minnesota and North Carolina.