Steve Kornacki: Wild Card Factors Could Help Republicans Defy Polls
Past polling misses raise concerns
Steve Kornacki, NBC News chief data analyst, said systematic polling inaccuracies could alter the outcome despite recent polls and historical precedent favoring Democrats ahead of Election Day. He said polls in the Trump era had sometimes missed Republican voters, especially pro-Trump voters, and described the errors as particularly marked in some battleground states. He cited Iowa and Ohio, along with other Midwest states.
Kansas among states to watch
Kornacki identified Kansas as a state to monitor for potential polling discrepancies. His assessment comes as major polling operations have disclosed ongoing difficulties reaching Republican voters during this election cycle. The New York Times reported on those non-response concerns.
Democratic baseline remains favorable
The possibility of an undercounted Republican electorate exists alongside baseline measures that favor Democrats. If polls are missing Republican voters, the resulting inaccuracies could affect how the election outlook is understood, Kornacki warned.
Key points
- Kornacki said polling errors could alter the election picture.
- He cited past undercounts of Republican and pro-Trump voters.
- Iowa, Ohio and Kansas were named as states to watch.
- Polling operations have reported difficulty reaching Republican voters.