Opinion: Five Telltale Signs of a Democratic Blowout to Watch on Election Night

A Democratic Wind, But How Strong?

The contours of the 2026 midterms are becoming clearer, according to Ms. Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer and Republican pollster. President Trump’s approval rating has fallen, while voter enthusiasm is higher among Democrats.

Anti-incumbent sentiment and economic discontent add to the political environment. Anderson says the key question is how strong the winds favoring Democrats will prove to be.

A Texas Race And Undervotes

Anderson says she will watch for a possible undervote in one of the year’s marquee contests. An undervote occurs when someone casts a ballot but leaves a particular race blank.

Voters sometimes do this because they do not feel informed enough to choose. Anderson says that explanation is unlikely in this case, given how familiar Texas voters probably are with Mr. Paxton and Mr. Talarico.

Partisanship Tests Senate Hopes

Democrats need to gain a couple of Senate seats in states that supported Mr. Trump by double-digit margins in 2024. Anderson says they will have to contend with the increasingly strong pull of partisanship in recent Senate elections.

In earlier years, states sometimes chose one party for president and another for senator. Montana and West Virginia backed Republican presidential candidates while sending Jon Tester and Joe Manchin to Washington; Rhode Island, Illinois and Massachusetts elected Republican senators Lincoln Chafee, Mark Kirk and Scott Brown.

That split-ticket pattern has largely faded in the Trump era, Anderson writes, with Mr. Tester and Mr. Manchin as exceptions.