2026 Midterms Explained: What’s at Stake for Trump and Congress?

The fight for the House

More than 100 million people are expected to vote if turnout matches the 2022 midterms. Early voting is already underway, and continued trends could point toward a Democratic win, though the result remains uncertain. Rising consumer prices may also weigh on Republican support.

Why midterms matter

Midterms take place halfway through a president’s four-year term and do not include a presidential election. They can nevertheless serve as a measure of voters’ views on the president and prompt changes in the White House if the governing party fares poorly.

The party holding the White House or Congress has often faced difficult midterm contests. The scale of this election is reflected in campaign spending: by October 30, political ads for the 2025–26 cycle had drawn a record $11.6 billion. Elon Musk had spent $442 million to support Republicans, according to campaign finance records.

What a Democratic House could do

A Democratic majority could direct House committees to investigate Trump and his associates. Jeffries has said Democrats would examine what he calls “unprecedented levels of corruption” in the Trump administration, and would work to make healthcare, groceries, housing, energy and other costs more affordable.

Competing policy priorities

Republicans are likely to emphasize more tax cuts and substantially higher defense spending, alongside deeper reductions to the social safety net. Those priorities would build on Trump’s 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill.” State legislatures are also part of the political landscape: Republicans hold 55% of state legislative seats, while Democrats hold 43.8%, according to Ballotpedia. An open seat in a Nebraska swing district has drawn attention as farmers and truckers face sharply higher fuel prices linked to the US war against Iran.