Israel heads to polls for pivotal election defined by security and democracy

A close race and coalition arithmetic

Friday’s polling placed Netanyahu in a near tie with Eisenkot, who leads Yashar, a party formed last year. Israel’s proportional representation system has always produced coalition governments, and this contest appears particularly tight.

Other figures in the blocs include former prime minister Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and former general Yair Golan. Two Arab party blocs are also running; Arab citizens make up about one-fifth of Israel’s population, but all except one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out joining them.

Netanyahu’s Likud plans to gather in Jerusalem, while Yashar will meet in Tel Aviv as results arrive. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists will vote, though many of their ballots will not start being counted until Wednesday.

Security and political disputes

Security is a prominent concern, alongside arguments about democracy and the judicial system. Netanyahu faces a corruption trial, whose charges he denies, and continues to pursue controversial judicial reforms that prompted mass protests before the 7 October attacks.

The candidates have also called for an independent inquiry into the attacks. Netanyahu has resisted the proposal, arguing that such an inquiry would be biased against him. Channel 12 reported on Sunday that Netanyahu sought military action that could bring a confrontation with Iran before the election, but was opposed by military chief Eyal Zamir. CNN reported the next day that Netanyahu tried to persuade Donald Trump to authorize new strikes on Iran; Trump declined, and Netanyahu denied both reports.

Conscription, Gaza and possible outcomes

Military service is another divisive issue. Netanyahu’s government has not enforced a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox men in full-time religious study to serve, while thousands of others have been conscripted in recent wars. Netanyahu governs with two ultra-Orthodox parties that have supported protests against conscription.

Eisenkot’s position on Gaza is broadly similar to Netanyahu’s. He has promised to end Hamas rule within 18 months, through a US-led peace plan or military action if needed; Israel says its near-daily strikes since last year’s ceasefire target Hamas operatives.

The two-state solution has largely disappeared from mainstream Israeli politics. Coalition negotiations may involve concessions or shifts, but if no bloc can form a majority and no minority government is possible, new elections would be called and Netanyahu would remain interim prime minister.