In Brazil, Lula bucks regional shift to the right and denies Trump a powerful ally

A close presidential contest

By Monday morning, Flávio Bolsonaro had not conceded and was calling for the result to be annulled. Trump had yet to publicly recognize Lula’s reelection as congratulations arrived from Brazil’s allies and rivals.

Brazil’s strategic importance

Lula’s victory complicates U.S. efforts to bring Brazil into a military coalition against cartels and secure preferential access to critical minerals, analysts say. Washington is also interested in Brazil’s rare earths to reduce the U.S. defense industry’s reliance on China.

Brazil resisted joining the Shield of the Americas, a U.S.-led coalition targeting cartels. Lula has instead upheld a tradition of nonalignment, deepened trade ties with China and pursued greater influence through BRICS, a group of emerging economies.

A regional shift meets resistance

Across Latin America, candidates promising to restore order have gained support from voters concerned about rising crime. Newly elected conservatives including Peru’s Keiko Fujimori, Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella and Chile’s José Antonio Kast have courted Trump and drawn inspiration from El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele.

Trump has backed the regional shift through endorsements, financial bailouts and pledges of military aid. Cornell professor Kenneth Roberts said the United States was trying to support the region’s more hard-line right-wing forces.

Tariffs and prospects for cooperation

Despite tensions, both governments have reasons to work together: Washington wants access to minerals, while Lula seeks investment and tariff relief for Brazilian exporters. Council on Foreign Relations fellow Will Freeman said Lula was pragmatic enough to find a way to work with the Trump administration. Jair Bolsonaro lost to Lula in 2022, and Freeman said the family’s allies in Washington could lose influence.