As Israel’s ties with Europe keep fraying, will the October election change its standing abroad?

A relationship under growing strain

Israel once had ties with Europe that extended well beyond diplomacy. It took part in European football and Eurovision, shared intelligence with European governments and supplied weapons used in European production.

That closeness has weakened. Some European countries have withdrawn from Eurovision over Israel’s participation, while footballers have declined to play its team. European leaders have also issued sharp public criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

Attacks deepen diplomatic concerns

Analysts say the damage to Israel’s relations with Europe could take years to address. Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House said a return to power by Netanyahu alongside far-right parties could make some consequences irreversible.

A coalition including more liberal parties might slow settlement expansion, but would not necessarily reverse the policies behind European criticism. Analysts also say Netanyahu’s position as a premier wanted by the ICC could further worsen relations.

Election debate focuses on security

Israel’s election is scheduled for October 27 and remains too close to call. Yet the campaign has concentrated on security rather than the killing of Palestinians or Israel’s international standing.

In September, polling by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 72 percent of Jewish Israelis opposed withdrawing to Gaza’s border without keeping an Israeli security perimeter inside the territory. Despite Israel’s diplomatic isolation, Yaakov Katz, a cofounder of an organization whose name is cut off in the report, said the issue is barely discussed.

Public opinion and policy pressure

A Mitvim Institute survey from last year found that 67 percent of Israelis viewed the EU more as an adversary, while 14 percent considered it a friend. Menachem Klein of Bar-Ilan University said the current government had badly harmed relations with allies and that the damage would take time to heal.

Neve Gordon, a human rights law professor at Queen Mary University in London, said public opinion had shifted in several Western countries. Nathalie Tocci linked that pressure to recognition of Palestinian statehood, proposals to suspend the EU-Israel association agreement and restrictions on settlement imports.

Julie M Norman of Chatham House said European governments were moving beyond targeted sanctions on far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich toward broader scrutiny of the Israeli state. She also said two successive German governments had been unwilling to act on public criticism of Germany’s support for Israel.