Alberta separatism went from fringe cause to a vote on starting the referendum process

What voters will decide

On Monday, voters in Alberta will consider whether to stay in Canada or begin a legal process that could lead to a referendum on separation. The province is not voting to leave Canada on Oct. 19.

Premier Danielle Smith called the vote but supports remaining in Canada. She said support for opening the separation process, at around 23% in a recent poll, was “still too high for my liking,” according to Smith.

A movement finds new momentum

Alberta has long clashed with the federal government over oil and federal authority. Energy policies under Liberal prime ministers Pierre Trudeau and Justin Trudeau drew strong opposition in the province, while separatist parties generally received only 1% or 2% of the vote, former Premier Jason Kenney said.

Kenney said the pandemic and the Freedom Convoy helped redirect activists toward separation. “They needed a new cause,” Kenney told The Associated Press, adding that the cause “naturally morphed into separatism.” The 2022 convoy began with opposition to vaccine rules for cross-border truckers and grew into a wider protest against pandemic restrictions.

Organizing beyond the convoy

Kenney cautioned that he was speaking about activists, not typical voters who support separation. He described those voters as frustrated Albertans seeking to send Ottawa a message. He also said some activists drew inspiration from the MAGA movement and tried, with at least some success, to enter the United Conservative Party he founded.

Energy politics and the campaign

Prime Minister Mark Carney has made expanding markets for Alberta oil a national priority and supports a proposed pipeline to the West Coast. His energy policies and opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and 51st-state rhetoric have helped make him unusually popular in conservative Alberta, Kenney said.

Separation leader Jeff Rath called Carney a “formidable opponent” and said major politicians oppose the movement. Rath said he would be “thrilled” with more than 30% support, short of a majority. Alberta sends roughly 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States, and separatists have taken their campaign to Washington.