Black Sea drone strikes raise fears of Russian escalation and test NATO’s response

Ships struck across the region

The attacks have taken place in the exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria. On Thursday, the San Marino-flagged chemical tanker Wine Trader caught fire after a drone strike while traveling from Tunisia to Romania; five crew members were rescued, and seven are missing.

Questions over responsibility

Romanian President Nicusor Dan said two drones hit vessels and promised a response from the state, but did not identify who launched them. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said the attacks appeared to benefit Russia and argued that Ukraine had no reason to target its own ships and crews.

Earlier incidents this month included a Togo-flagged ship that sank, with 12 sailors reported aboard and no sign of them. A Palau-flagged vessel was damaged, and its 18 crew members were evacuated. A Turkish-owned cargo ship carrying corn also caught fire and sank off Romania; two people died and 11 crew members were rescued. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed two Russian drones for that attack, which he said happened in neutral waters.

Russia’s ambassador in Sofia said she had no information from the Russian defense ministry. The article reports that most drone incursions into Romanian and other NATO members’ airspace since Russia’s full-scale invasion have come from Russia, but Ukrainian drones have also crossed borders.

NATO weighs its response

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he had met Dan and Radev to discuss Black Sea security and attacks on commercial shipping. He said the alliance had bolstered its eastern flank, including by adding counter-drone capabilities, and would adjust its deterrence and defense posture as needed.

Article 5 of NATO’s charter establishes a mutual defense guarantee, but Romanian analyst Radu Tudor said it is unclear whether strikes in exclusive economic zones fall within its scope. He said the issue remained under discussion and warned that words alone were not enough as incidents continued and Russia moved closer to NATO borders.