How Trump’s diesel deal with Russia will impact the United States and Ukraine

US President Trump’s diesel deal with Russia has alarmed Ukraine and its allies. What is he hoping to achieve at home, and what does the deal mean for Kyiv and Moscow?

Many Ukrainians and Europeans viewed news from Washington over the past weekend as a stab in the back by their US ally. First, President Donald Trump announced a deal to buy Russian diesel, which involves a temporary easing of US sanctions against Moscow.

And later Trump announced an allegedly agreed "energy ceasefire" between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv said the idea had not been discussed with Ukraine, but that it was prepared to halt attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure if Moscow did the same.

Security expert Carlo Masala of the Bundeswehr University Munich said the developments showed that "Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine at all, but that domestic US politics and relations with Russia are far more important to him than supporting Ukraine."

He added that the president aims to sway the outcome of the US midterm elections on November 3 through an agreement with Russia.

All seats in the House of Representatives and a regularly scheduled portion of the Senate will be contested in the midterm elections. Polls suggest that Trump's Republican Party could lose its majority in the House. A loss of the Republicans' Senate majority is also possible. Surveys indicate that American voters are unhappy with high fuel prices, and the US president apparently hopes to influence prices through diesel shipments from Russia.

Observers, however, consider Trump's hopes that Russian diesel shipments could affect prices in the US illusory.

"The volume is so small that it will have absolutely no effect on prices," Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne told German public broadcaster ARD.

The political scientist added that shipments planned before the midterm elections would not even cover US diesel demand for a single day.

"The same applies to any shipments that may arrive afterward, if they materialize, they will have no effect on prices either," he said.

Trump's goal, Jäger said, is simply "the story" — showing voters that he is trying to solve a problem that matters to them.

The main criticism from Kyiv and EU countries is that Russia will use the revenue from diesel sales to finance its war against Ukraine.