Retail's holiday hiring push is shaping up to be worse than last year's disappointing run

The annual stampede of seasonal retail job openings continues to taper off, with hiring expected to be at its lowest level since the Financial Crisis.

"It's a little bit of chicken right now with retailers and the economy going, 'Okay, who's going to move first?'" said Trent Cotton, head of talent-acquisition insights at recruiting-software company ICIMS. "It will be interesting to see this at the end of the year."

This year's retail industry hiring push is on track to be lower than last year's tally of 461,000, according to career transition firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"Almost every hiring announcement we've seen in the last three years is smaller and more surgical than the pre-pandemic playbook. Even if the big names come in at last year's numbers, the total will likely fall well short of the 2019—2021 peaks," chief revenue officer Andy Challenger said in a statement.

Amazon has not yet shared its plans, and Walmart told Business Insider it will take the same approach as last year, which did not have a hiring goal target. "Our stores are well-staffed and ready to serve customers this holiday season," the company said.

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Cotton also said that these smaller numbers reflect a trend toward earlier hiring and less reliance on seasonal workers.

That point also came up several times during visit Business Insider had with Target's chief stores officer Adrienne Costanzo in August. For some Target stores, the larger hiring push already happened in preparation for the critical back-to-school season, which also enabled managers to train new hires for the holidays.

Retail workers represent roughly one in ten US workers, and analysis from the Urban Institute estimates that six in 10 workers have held a retail job at some point in their careers.