Separatists win in Quebec – but does that bring separation from Canada any closer?

Lack of majority for Parti Québécois puts any referendum in doubt, especially amid bruising trade war with Trump

The victory of the Parti Québécois in Monday’s election in Quebec might seem to bring its signature goal, of separating the French-speaking province from Canada, much closer – but Canadian unity may not be nearly as threatened as may first seem.

It also won with barely 28% of the popular vote, the lowest percentage for any government in Canada’s electoral history, according to the polling analyst Philippe Fournier.

The result not only puts another referendum in doubt, but a raft of other PQ initiatives too, including abolishing the monarchy and applying Quebec’s strict language laws to the province’s colleges. The new government will also face stiff opposition to its plans to reduce immigration levels, which has angered farmers and the business community.

“Seventy percent of Quebecers don’t want a referendum,” said John Parisella, who served as chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and the province’s delegate general in New York and Washington.

The vote, in fact, may have less to do with embracing separatism and more about punishing the current government. The election saw the total collapse of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which has been in power since 2018. An alliance of federalists and separatists (the party describes itself as nationalist), it didn’t win a single seat, and harvested just a third of its vote share compared to 2022. Its leader, Christine Fréchette, lost her own riding to the Parti Québécois, and on Tuesday afternoon she resigned.

The PCQ feasted on the CAQ’s support in the election, winning 19 ridings in the hinterland and in the Quebec City area, where leader Éric Duhaime won his seat for the first time. Founded in 2009, the populist party counts a prominent anti-vaxxer and a rage-bating anti-woke radio host as two of its winning candidates.

Montreal, meanwhile, went decidedly Liberal red, with leader Charles Milliard regaining seats on the island and in the traditionally English redoubt of the Eastern Townships. The staunchly federalist Liberals, who are unaffiliated with Carney’s federal Liberals, will serve as Quebec’s official opposition. Governing with but a handful of seats in the province’s biggest metropolis will be challenging enough for the PQ; as history has shown, winning a referendum without it is somewhere near impossible.