Trade: How India became dangerously addicted to Chinese imports

A visit to a toy shop shows India's push to reshape trade with its larger neighbour. Shopkeepers initially argued local makers could not compete with overseas goods, but higher import taxes combined with tougher quality rules helped change the market.

Toys are presented as an uncommon success in an otherwise failing effort to fix a sharply uneven trading link, described as among the most one-sided globally. Washington-based analyst Kevin Zongzhe Li told the BBC that economic reliance "continued to deepen" even when political, security and investment ties were very weak.

Delhi-based researcher Ajay Srivastava said China provides more than 30% of India's industrial imports and that India needs Beijing for over 100 vital items, with the gap growing. Anti-China feeling rose sharply after 2020 border clashes, though ties have since improved.

During the Brics summit in Delhi in September, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping promised to tackle "structural trade imbalances" and supply problems. The pledge came amid a wider thaw between the two countries.

The dependence is increasingly about making goods, not just buying finished items. Srivastava said output is mostly assembly and relies heavily on parts from China. According to the Observer Research Foundation, electrical machinery and electronics make up 36% of imports, with machinery and mechanical appliances at 21.7%, plus large shares for organic chemicals and plastics.

Wider economic forces are also lifting Chinese shipments, as producers sell cheaply abroad. China's trade surplus is expected to exceed $1tn for a second year in a row, underscoring why Delhi faces pressure to address input reliance and supply-chain risks.