Why Delta Cut Its 2026 Forecast as Fuel Costs Rose

Why did Delta cut its 2026 forecast?

The main reason was a steep rise in fuel costs. Delta said its fuel bill for the year would be about $6 billion higher than it had expected, and that higher prices had already weighed on its third-quarter results. The company said the quarter included $500 million in fuel costs above the guidance it gave in July. ¹²

Delta lowered its full-year adjusted earnings-per-share forecast to $5.10–$5.60, from $6.50–$7.50. Adjusted earnings per share is a company’s profit per share after certain items are excluded from the measure. Delta also lowered its free cash flow outlook to $2.5 billion, from as much as $4 billion in July. Free cash flow is money left after a company pays for operating costs and investments. ¹

How much did fuel costs rise?

Delta’s third-quarter fuel bill was $4.1 billion, up 62% from a year earlier, according to the report. Delta attributed the pressure to higher fuel prices; the Yahoo Finance report linked the oil-market rise to the US-Israeli war with Iran. ²

A separate price measure in CNBC’s report put jet fuel in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region at $4.34 on Thursday, compared with $2.19 a year earlier. That is a regional price figure, not a price paid by every airline for all its fuel. ¹

What could higher fuel costs mean for airfares?

Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said the airline had passed along much of the added fuel expense through higher fares. That suggests travelers may face more expensive tickets, but the available reports do not give a specific fare increase or say how prices will change on particular routes. ¹

Airfares depend on more than fuel costs. The reports describe Delta’s pricing and demand, but they do not establish how other airlines will respond or whether every traveler will see the same changes.

Are travelers still booking Delta flights?

Bastian said bookings remained strong across business and leisure travel, different cabins and regions. Delta also forecast fourth-quarter revenue growth of 20% compared with a year earlier, adjusted for the benefit of its refinery. These are Delta’s statements and outlook, not a guarantee that demand will remain at the same level. ¹

The company’s results also showed pressure beneath that demand: adjusted third-quarter earnings per share were $1.72, below the $1.82 analysts expected, while adjusted revenue was $17.58 billion, below the $17.76 billion estimate cited by Yahoo Finance. ²

What does the forecast change mean for Delta stock?

A lower profit outlook means Delta expects to earn less in 2026 than it projected in July. It is relevant information for people following DAL, Delta’s stock ticker, but it does not by itself determine how the share price will move. The sources report the forecast and earnings figures, not a reliable prediction of future stock performance. ¹²

For travelers, the practical takeaway is narrower: Delta says it has raised fares to offset much of its higher fuel bill, while also saying demand has held up. The reports do not tell us how long that balance can continue.