With Alaska vote counting continuing, Democrat Mary Peltola likely to win Senate race, NBC analysis says
Peltola widens her lead
Mary Peltola, a former Democratic representative, has increased her slim advantage over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her margin has grown with each newly reported batch of votes this week.
The NBC News Decision Desk now considers Peltola likely to win, though counting is continuing. The designation reflects the desk’s assessment of the race, not a completed count.
Meaning of the projection
The Decision Desk uses “likely” when it has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win. The analysis therefore signals a strong expectation of her victory while votes remain uncounted.
The report does not provide a final vote total or a projected margin. It says only that Peltola’s lead has expanded as additional results have been reported.
One race remains uncalled
Alaska is the only remaining 2026 Senate contest for which the NBC News Decision Desk has not made a projection. Its assessment that Peltola is likely to win is not described as a formal projection.
The continued count leaves the race unresolved, even as the desk expresses high confidence in Peltola’s prospects. Sullivan is the Republican incumbent she leads.
Key points
- Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan with new vote batches this week.
- The NBC News Decision Desk assigns at least 95% confidence to its “likely” assessment.
- Alaska is the only 2026 Senate race still awaiting a Decision Desk projection.