How Scott Colom’s Stunning Upset in the Mississippi Senate Race Defied the Numbers Behind Trump’s Nearly 23-Point Edge
A difficult path to victory
Mississippi is deeply Republican, and Colom faced a steep challenge in his bid for the Senate. Trump won the state by nearly 23 percentage points two years earlier, making a broad shift in national sentiment insufficient on its own.
Colom’s route depended on strong turnout among Black voters, who account for nearly 40 percent of Mississippi’s population, as well as support from some white voters. Hyde-Smith also needed to fare less well than other Republicans in the state, as she had in previous elections.
Black voters turned out
Participation was high in many majority-Black counties, with turnout approaching the levels seen in the 2024 presidential election. In some majority-Black neighborhoods, more people voted than in 2024, when the presidential race featured the first Black woman nominee.
Black voters represented 33 percent of Mississippi’s electorate in 2026, compared with 30 percent two years earlier, according to Times Voter Trends. The estimates draw on multiple data sources to assess how demographic groups voted.
A historic Senate result
Ninety-one percent of Black voters in Mississippi supported Colom, according to the estimates. Because Black voters in the state overwhelmingly favor Democrats, their increased share of the electorate brought substantial benefit to his campaign.
His victory flipped the reddest seat won by a Democrat in a year of major change in the Senate. The result brought together the turnout and crossover support his campaign needed.
Key points
- Black voters were 33 percent of Mississippi’s electorate in 2026, up from 30 percent in 2024.
- An estimated 91 percent of Black voters supported Colom.
- Colom is Mississippi’s first Democratic senator since John C. Stennis.
- He is the first Black man to hold the seat since Reconstruction.