Beijing Faces a Russia Bind Amid Talk of a Trump-Putin Summit with Xi

A Summit Still Unconfirmed

The leaders of China, Russia and the United States may meet during next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen. China has not confirmed the gathering, though a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said Beijing was “in communication” with relevant parties. A Kremlin representative said coordination was underway.

Donald Trump offered the clearest indication of a possible meeting, saying he thought one of the planned APEC meetings would involve Putin and Xi. The three governments have not officially confirmed a summit, and its possible agenda remains unclear.

Trump mentioned Iran and denuclearization as possible topics, but did not refer to Russia’s war in Ukraine. China’s Foreign Ministry said it had no information about the substance of any potential talks.

Optics Favor Moscow

A meeting, even if it produced only a photo, could be a diplomatic win for Putin. Russia has faced years of diplomatic boycotts by Kyiv’s allies since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, particularly from the United States under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden.

Putin proposed a trilateral summit during a call with Trump last month. The Wall Street Journal reported that Putin wanted to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Media have described the possible gathering as a “new Yalta,” recalling the postwar meeting of US, UK and Soviet leaders.

Beijing Weighs the Risks

China and Russia are broadly aligned on many issues, but Beijing does not want to be directly associated with Russia’s war in Ukraine. China is also seeking to rebalance its economic ties with the European Union, whose members could object to discussions of the war without Kyiv or Brussels present.

Bachulska said the “Yalta 2.0” comparison was historically inaccurate but could still create negative optics for Beijing. Images of Xi with Trump, whom China sees as a leading rival, and Putin, its partner in opposing the United States, could also harm China’s image, she said.

A Close China-Russia Partnership

Xi and Putin have met about 40 times since Xi came to power in 2012. Their countries moved closer after declaring a “no limits” partnership in early 2022. Xi and Putin announced the partnership during the Beijing Winter Olympics, weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.