US midterm results could bring real consequences for Iran war — but can it end soon?

Fighting has eased, disputes remain

President Donald Trump says the US-Israel war with Iran is effectively over in military terms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said major combat operations are unnecessary, pointing to economic pressure and negotiations.

Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei, however, says negotiations are not happening. Ian Kelly, a former US ambassador, describes the situation as a virtual ceasefire, with significant de-escalation but major questions still unsettled.

Kelly told DW there is little significant shooting, but the Strait of Hormuz remains central. Iran wants US strike forces withdrawn from the Gulf, while the United States wants the strait reopened.

Hormuz carries economic stakes

The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping route between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Iranian attacks on commercial vessels there have pushed up oil prices and affected living costs in the United States and elsewhere.

The White House says it can maintain containment through land and sea blockades. Kelly says the United States has also set goals of gaining full control of the strait and making Iran give up enriched uranium, but efforts to achieve them could end the current calm. Ali Mohammadi, an expert on Iranian affairs, says Iran’s limits in the strait are economic rather than military, because continuing the war weighs heavily on its economy.

Midterm results may reshape support

The article says Democrats will take control of both the House and Senate next year after major losses by Trump’s Republicans. Kelly believes Iran is waiting to see whether Congress will cut or sharply limit war funding.

Kelly said the prospect of reduced congressional support is one reason Iran may be holding back. He also said the war has damaged the Republican Party because Trump had promised in 2024 to avoid further prolonged wars.

Kelly argues Republicans need the conflict resolved before the 2028 election. He said an unresolved war could remain a political liability for the party.

A return to force remains possible

Kelly said the United States may struggle to meet its stated goals through negotiation. He argued that Iran is unlikely to negotiate away its nuclear position, which could leave the White House considering military action again.

The article presents competing pressures: Iran faces economic strain, while US congressional funding and political support may weaken. Neither side has declared the conflict fully over, and the central issues remain unresolved.