Why gasoline is suddenly under $4 a gallon—and what could push prices back up
Prices fall below four dollars
AAA says the national average for regular gasoline is now $3.94 per gallon. It moved below $4 on Tuesday, after prices fell about 40 cents in a month, with much of the drop occurring during the last two weeks. The lower price offers drivers some relief, but AAA says gasoline remains more expensive than ever for this point in the year.
Seasonal shifts add supply
Gasoline demand usually eases after summer, when fewer people drive in colder weather. Refineries also complete their annual maintenance by late fall, adding fuel to the market. Refineries switch from summer gasoline, designed to evaporate less in heat, to a winter blend that helps engines start in freezing conditions and costs less to produce. This year, federal agencies moved the change to September 1 from the usual timing around September 15, citing prices affected by the Iran war.
Oil prices shape the outlook
The largest factor, according to Rystad Energy’s Jorge León, is cheaper Brent crude, now about $90 a barrel. More oil is reaching markets through Middle Eastern pipelines, while traders have responded positively to stronger U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts.
Key points
- AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline at $3.94 per gallon.
- Lower seasonal demand and completed refinery maintenance are adding to available fuel.
- Falling Brent crude prices are the biggest driver of the recent decline, according to Jorge León.
- A full return to pre-war gasoline prices could take months after a lasting peace deal.