Peace talks show progress, but Ukraine’s mapped frontline leaves land dispute unresolved

Talks resume in Abu Dhabi

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators left a second day of US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday expressing confidence about progress towards a peace deal. The discussions were the first restart of diplomacy in about nine months, following earlier meetings in Geneva.

Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said there was “good momentum” towards a solution by the end of the year. He also called for Europe to take part in future discussions. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that Kyiv was being asked “too often” to make concessions, while Moscow continued to demand land in Ukraine’s mineral-rich east.

Territory remains the obstacle

The frontlines have shifted since February. The Institute for the Study of War estimated that Russia claimed 43,585 square miles of land then, compared with 43,527 square miles today. The same source put assessed Ukrainian counteroffensive or counterattack territory at 23,089 square miles in February and 27,113 square miles in November.

Pressure from both sides

Ukraine has widened strikes on Russian businesses and energy infrastructure over the past year, adding pressure on Moscow amid a costly war. Kyiv says its attacks on Russian energy sites aim to weaken a key source of war funding and bring the conflict closer to Russians.

Russia has used Iranian-made drones that can travel up to 2,000km with a 50kg warhead. The article says they have damaged energy infrastructure, warehouses and morale in Ukrainian cities. Analysts estimated that about 30 per cent of Russia’s oil-processing capacity was offline or disrupted as of November 10, up from 20 per cent reported in June.

Shifting US relationship

The United States temporarily waived sanctions in October and reached a deal to facilitate Russian diesel exports. After Russia apparently ignored a truce last month, Ukraine renewed attacks on Russian infrastructure, drawing criticism from Trump.

The White House said intelligence sharing with Ukraine had not changed. By the end of October, the US had approved the sale of 500 Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine.

Zelensky told NBC’s Meet the Press that Ukraine could not “prevail” if the United States “officially” sided with Russia. Trump said in an interview with 60 Minutes on November 9 that he expected a peace deal and that Ukraine would end up with a “little bit [of a] different shape”.