Concern and scepticism among Labor MPs as poll shows party trailing One Nation before Victorian election 2026
Labor vote falls to 18%
The poll, first published by the Herald Sun on Monday, records a seven-point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 18%. That is the lowest level reported for the party in the poll.
The Coalition leads on 33%, while One Nation has 21%. The Greens have risen three points since September, reaching 17%.
Coalition widens its lead
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor 56-44. In September, the figures were 52-48. Victorian Labor MPs are both sceptical of the poll and seriously concerned about its findings ahead of the state election. Premier Ben Carroll declined to comment on the latest poll.
Possible election night outcome
DemosAU research head George Hasanakos said that, if the figures were repeated on election night, many contests could be between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation. He said that outcome would produce a clear Coalition majority. Hasanakos said One Nation would need to poll very strongly to have a chance of winning, because Labor and Greens preferences would flow to the Liberals.
Key points
- Labor’s primary vote is 18%, down seven points, in the DemosAU/PremierNational poll.
- One Nation is on 21%, ahead of Labor but behind the Coalition’s 33%.
- The Greens have gained three points since September, reaching 17%.
- The Coalition leads Labor 56-44 on a two-party preferred basis.