Trump, FBI, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Betting shifts as investigation raises questions

Markets track Huang’s future

Kalshi and Polymarket began offering contracts after Huang acknowledged the relationship on Sunday. A Kalshi contract about when he might leave Nvidia has drawn more than $266,000 in trading volume.

Traders put the chance of Huang leaving before January 2029 at 54%, compared with 52% before January 2028 and 33% before July 2027. Another Kalshi market, with roughly $2,500 in volume, places the chance he will testify before Congress at 46% by next January and 79% by next July.

Resignation and personal bets

A Polymarket contract on when Huang’s resignation or removal might be announced has attracted more than $305,000 in trading volume. Traders put the probability of an announcement by year-end at 16%, rising to 22% by the end of March 2027.

Forecasts have limits

Nvidia announced an investigation after Huang told the company’s board about his intimate relationship with a business executive whom U.S. intelligence officials reportedly identified as a Chinese spy. Nvidia shares have fallen nearly 10% since Monday morning.

Prediction markets let users trade on outcomes in areas including sports, politics and weather, with prices reflecting expectations. Their forecasts have not always matched results: markets favored Republicans in two races that Democrats ultimately won, while an earlier surprise in Brazil’s presidential election also prompted questions about accuracy.