Israel election results: when they’ll be announced and whether there’s an exit poll

Voting and the exit poll

Polls are scheduled to open at 7am local time and close at 10pm, or 8pm GMT. Israeli TV channels are expected to publish an exit poll after polling stations close.

How seats are allocated

Thirty-eight parties are contesting the election, though many are unlikely to win seats. Voters choose a party rather than an individual candidate, and seats are allocated in proportion to each party’s share of the nationwide vote.

A party needs at least 3.25 per cent of the vote to enter the Knesset, equivalent to four seats. The parliament has 120 seats, and no party has historically won a majority on its own.

A close contest and coalition talks

The two main blocs are described as nearly equal in strength. One is an alliance of far-right parties dominated by Netanyahu; the other is led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defence Forces.

Current polling suggests a tight race. The prime minister’s coalition may fall short of a majority, while the Eisenkot-led opposition is predicted to win the most seats; other liberal parties that might join it are forecast to have fewer votes collectively than its right-wing partners.

Why forming a government takes time

Even after results are confirmed, coalition negotiations could take 20 to 100 days. No government in the past two decades has been sworn in within 50 days, and if no bloc can form a coalition with 61 seats, voters return to the polls.

Once a coalition agreement is signed, the Knesset holds a special session. The designated prime minister presents the government and its policy agenda, followed by a formal vote; the new government begins its term if it wins.

Issues shaping the vote

The election is described as one of Israel’s most consequential. Its outcome could affect Palestinians, relations with neighbouring states and ties with international partners including the US and Europe. Campaign issues include military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, an investigation into the failure to prevent the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks, and possible future concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.