Trump disapproval drives early turnout as poll finds likely voters favor Democrats by 8 points

Democrats hold a polling lead

The poll found that 52% of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 44% for the Republican. Independents favor Democrats by 13 points.

Democratic voters are also more enthusiastic about voting: 71% say they are very enthusiastic, versus 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. Among registered voters, Democrats lead by 10 points, down from 12 points the previous month; the change falls within the poll’s margin of error.

Early ballots favor Democrats

More than 30 million ballots have been cast nationwide, including more than 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. About one in five likely voters in the survey said they had already voted.

That group favored Democrats 68% to 31%. Among those who had not yet voted, 48% supported each party; half of Republican likely voters planned to vote in person on Nov. 3, compared with 31% of Democrats.

Trump central to campaign debate

Marist Institute for Public Opinion director Lee Miringoff said the president’s role could concern congressional Republicans seeking distance from him. Voters in the poll expected Democrats to win their local congressional race by 51% to 46%.

Outlooks differ on Senate

Republican strategist Melik Abdul said the House was beyond his party’s reach, but predicted Republicans would retain the Senate, perhaps by one or two seats. He also cautioned that the result might not be the blue wave some expect.