Israel election: Markets predict stunning Netanyahu defeat despite Trump backing as polls show a tight race
A close race and uncertain outcome
Israeli opinion polls pointed to a tight contest between Netanyahu’s ruling Likud bloc and an opposition alliance around Eisenkot. Neither was expected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority.
The report describes Netanyahu as tipped for a stunning defeat, while also saying the polling showed a close race. Those accounts suggest an uncertain result rather than a clear outcome.
Vote follows security crises
Polling stations opened at 7am local time on Tuesday and were scheduled to close at 10pm. The election offers voters a chance to assess the response to the October 7 attacks, described as the country’s greatest domestic security failure in generations.
The campaign unfolded amid the subsequent conflicts with Hamas and Iran. Netanyahu referred to Iran in a statement, warning, “we will soon finish the job,” unless it changed its conduct.
Trump backs Netanyahu
Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu before the vote and said the United States might have to act against Iran if Israel chose another leader. Trump said he was “not inclined” to do that work himself.
Netanyahu urged supporters to vote, citing higher-than-usual turnout in areas he called the left’s strongholds. He described the moment as an emergency for right-wing voters.
Ben-Gvir gains support
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party was forecast to win at least eight seats, putting it on a par with the Democrats. Polling also indicated growing support in cities beyond its traditional base of West Bank settlers.
Agam Labs said as many as a third of Jewish Power supporters would be voting for the first time. By 10am, reported turnout was just below 17 per cent, the highest at that point since 1981; 30 per cent of IDF soldiers had voted, compared with 25.7 per cent in 2022.
Key points
- Polls indicated a tight race, with neither major bloc expected to secure 61 seats.
- The election followed the October 7 attacks and later conflicts with Hamas and Iran.
- Trump backed Netanyahu and warned the United States might have to act against Iran under another leader.
- Jewish Power was forecast to win eight or more seats as turnout rose.