These pivotal Senate races may determine which party controls the body next year

Michigan contest draws attention

Republican Mike Rogers is running against Democrat El-Sayed after losing his 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes. Republicans have criticized El-Sayed’s support for Medicare for all and his immigration positions, and have also attacked his faith and ethnicity.

El-Sayed told ABC News Live anchor Linsey Davis that attacks on his name and faith distract from people’s concerns about the cost of gas and groceries. Michigan voted for Trump in two of the past three elections, but Democrats have won every Senate race there since 1994.

Texas Democrats see an opening

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 33 years. Democrat hopes of changing that have been encouraged by Republican Ken Paxton’s low favorability and concerns about affordability.

Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in a costly Republican runoff after receiving Trump’s late endorsement. Paxton reached a pretrial agreement in a securities fraud case, agreeing to community service, legal ethics courses and nearly $300,000 in restitution; he said he was not guilty and that there would be no conviction. Republicans are spending millions on the race and held their first midterm convention in Dallas.

Alaska’s unusual ballot test

Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola and another candidate with the same name. Alaska’s ranked-choice system advances the four leading primary candidates to the general election, and Peltola is the only Democrat to advance.

Trump and other Republicans have urged voters to select the “real Dan Sullivan.” On Oct. 23, Sullivan directed the Justice Department to sue in advance to block certification if he narrowly loses.

Ohio and Kansas remain competitive

In Ohio, Republican incumbent John Husted faces former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 re-election bid to Bernie Moreno. It is Husted’s first statewide ballot, and affordability concerns and data centers are factors in the race as the state has moved toward Republicans in recent elections.