More than 1.35 million vote early as Trump annexation threats loom over Alberta’s vote on leaving Canada

A consequential vote in Alberta

The province’s ballot asks whether to begin a process toward a possible separation referendum, rather than deciding independence outright. Alberta holds most of Canada’s proven oil reserves, described as the world’s fourth largest.

More than 1.35 million people—43% of eligible voters—submitted advance or special ballots. That surpassed the 810,000 early votes recorded in the 2023 provincial election. Polls were scheduled to run from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m., with results expected after they close.

Carney urges a clear decision

Prime Minister Mark Carney spent two days campaigning in his home province and urged voters to treat the outcome seriously. At a Friday rally in Edmonton, where he grew up, he said, “Vote like Canada’s future depends on it because it does.” Carney warned that the timing was the worst possible and asked voters not to use the ballot simply to send Ottawa a message. He has also promoted reducing Canada’s trade reliance on the United States, drawing strong applause at events in Calgary and Edmonton.

His approach to energy has helped him find support in conservative Alberta, where Liberal prime ministers have often faced opposition over federal energy policies. Carney backs a proposed pipeline to the Pacific Coast and has appeared alongside Premier Danielle Smith in opposition to independence.

Separatist movement gains ground

Smith called the referendum despite opposing separation, amid pressure from activists in her United Conservative Party. Some were involved in efforts that helped remove former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022.

Kenney said independence had once remained a marginal cause, with separatist parties usually receiving 1% or 2% of votes. He linked the movement’s growth to pandemic-era anger over public health measures and government authority.

Keith Wilson, a co-chair of the separatist group, was a lead lawyer for the 2022 trucker convoy protest in Ottawa. Wilson says Alberta’s concerns also involve federal elections: he argues governments can win without much support in the province, whose energy sector often opposes federal policies.

National tensions and next steps

Separatist advocates have also sought talks with the Trump administration. Rath and other independence supporters met U.S. State Department officials in Washington three times to discuss Alberta’s future.

Rath said he would welcome a vote of 30% in favor of starting the separation process, even if that fell short of a majority. He also wants Smith removed as UCP leader and said the party could divide, potentially producing a new pro-independence party.