CBS poll shows Texas toss-up: Talarico and Paxton face tight Senate race

Turnout could decide the contest

The race is close, and the poll points to turnout as a central factor in the closing weeks. More Democrats say they are certain to vote, which helps Talarico, but a rise in Republican participation could alter the balance.

Talarico also attracts 9% of people who say they never vote for Democrats, regardless of their own party, but plan to do so this time. His support among younger voters is strong, though younger people have historically voted at lower rates than older voters.

Character and party loyalties

More voters say Talarico has the personal character needed to serve as a senator. That quality matters much more to his supporters than it does to people backing Paxton.

Some Paxton support among Republicans reflects a desire to support Trump. Texas voters also express more support for the Trump administration’s deportation program than respondents did in the most recent national CBS News poll, a difference that benefits Paxton.

Views of Talarico and Texas voters

Nearly half of Texas voters describe Talarico as very liberal, despite few voters in the state identifying themselves as liberal. Voters who characterize him that way are choosing Paxton, according to the poll.

Survey details

The CBS News/YouGov survey interviewed 1,492 registered Texas voters from October 8 through October 16, 2026. Researchers weighted the sample by gender, age, race and education using U.S. Census data, as well as by 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.5 points for likely voters.