Trump faces fresh economic nightmare as food and gas prices soar before midterms

Consumer prices likely surged in September, driven by rising gasoline and food costs, and adding to a string of unfavorable developments for President ​Donald Trump

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Driven by escalating food and gasoline costs, consumer prices in the United States likely accelerated in September, presenting another setback for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the crucial November 3 midterm elections.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey revealed that approximately 78% of Americans attribute rising prices—which are outstripping wage growth—to Trump's policies, including import tariffs and the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Nonetheless, underlying inflation, excluding volatile food and energy items, is projected to show only a modest gain for September, potentially easing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month.

Market experts note that a deceleration in monthly core CPI inflation offers minimal comfort to households, particularly those positioned on the lower end of what is described as a K-shaped economy.

"People care about food and energy. That's what they feel every day," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University.

"Many voters are at the lower leg of the K-shaped economy. They are suffering because of higher energy and food prices, and I assume that will have an impact on the election results, as a lot of people seem to think."

According to a Reuters poll of economists, the CPI is expected to have climbed 0.6% last month after a 0.4% advance in August. Higher gasoline costs—which jumped 7.1% in September according to US Energy Information Administration figures—could account for roughly three-tenths of a percentage point of that total.

Meanwhile, food costs are anticipated to rise by at least 0.2%, following consecutive monthly increases of 0.1%.

The figures will also carry significant weight for millions of retirees and Social Security beneficiaries anticipating adjustments to their payouts next year.

These programs support retired seniors, people with disabilities, and eligible surviving family members. The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.5% COLA increase for 2027, an uptick from the 2.8% adjustment in 2026, which would boost average monthly retiree checks by $67.90 to $2,007.