Vox rises as Sanchez battles political turmoil: Could Spain swing right?

Spain is due to hold a snap election on November 29, with polling suggesting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist party may lose ground. The contest could give the conservative People’s Party (PP) and far-right Vox a path to power.

Vox, once a small party on the political margins, is projected by an RTVE survey to grow from 33 parliamentary seats to 65. The same survey found support for the PP was not increasing, while left-wing parties were losing backing.

In the 2023 election, the PP took the most votes but lacked enough support to govern alone and did not form a coalition with Vox. Sanchez instead secured a government with backing from the Catalan nationalist Together for Catalonia party.

Vox spokesman Jose Antonio Fuster said the party would seek voters’ support and urged the PP not to repeat its 2023 approach by discussing ministerial posts before an election win. Academic Steven Forti said the right was more united than a divided left.

The result could determine whether Spain’s next government shifts to the right and whether Vox gains a role in national power. Sanchez’s party is forecast to win 112 seats, compared with 121 in the previous election; the election outcome will decide whether the PP and Vox can form a governing arrangement.