ANALYSIS | The tangled what-ifs of Alberta separation — from trade and treaties to currency and disaster costs | CBC News

Report lays out what to expect when you're extracting the province from Canada

It’s the big things that might spring to mind first when pondering the consequences of Alberta separation — the potential impacts to the gross domestic product, jobs, wages, debt and such.

This week’s major report by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy laid out these figures in sharp relief, with a series of outcomes ranging from modest long-term benefits to massive long-range detriments (and short-term pain in any scenario).

But beyond the headline figures contained in the government-commissioned summary report, we find a series of the U of C academics’ technical papers.

They underpin predictions of an independent Alberta’s debt load and potential job losses by diving into the many complex factors a breakaway republic named Alberta would have to contend with.

When you form a whole new country from the rib of an existing one, there’s a tonne to consider, from tariffs and multilateral agreements to currency, interest rates and treaties — both international and Indigenous.

Or even seemingly smaller (but still billion-dollar) factors, like public-sector pension obligations, and who pays for the aftermath of major floods and wildfires, the kinds of disasters Alberta knows all too well.

So without further ado, here’s a glimpse at the report’s analysis of some of the other challenges of Alberta independence, in the event that the public’s current pro-unity majority shifts dramatically, and opts for independence in two successive referendums, beginning with the one on Oct. 19.

Owing largely to oil pipelines, Alberta’s trade south of the border is more valuable than its exports to the rest of Canada, the School of Public Policy report notes.

Because of that, the authors suggest it may be most expedient for a new country to strike a direct deal with Washington, rather than try to inject itself into the already rocky talks around the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

However, it notes that while the current U.S. administration might offer terms that are beneficial to an oil-producing neighbour, the report adds: “As much as the U.S. depends on Alberta oil and gas exports, Alberta depends on making those exports more, and the U.S. administration knows this.”

Meanwhile, joining CUSMA — does it become CUSAMA? ACUSMA has a certain ring — would provide largely tariff-free access to its big customers, including Mexico. “However, the process could be lengthy,” the report states, a familiar refrain throughout.