ANALYSIS | Alberta NDP flies the anti-separatist flag to snatch a UCP riding in Calgary | CBC News

A surprise upset 5 weeks before referendum, and a whole year before next election

In among all the splashes of Alberta NDP orange and UCP blue, there was plenty of red adorning the front yards of many homes ahead of this week’s Calgary-Shaw byelection.

No, sorry, I’m not talking about Alberta Liberal Leader John Roggeveen and the 3.8 per cent vote share he snagged.

The red refers to the many Canadian flags homeowners have newly erected, and the pro-unity, anti-separatist lawn signs that have sprung up throughout Alberta.

The campaigning New Democrats sensed the kind of reception they’d get at those doors for their candidate Kyle Campbell, now the MLA-elect.

Alberta separatism, NDP's vision for province among reasons cited for Calgary byelection flip

“If you were flying a Canadian flag or you had a forever Canadian sign … Yeah, we pretty much could mark you down as a supporter,” NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi told reporters on Tuesday, the day after his party’s victory in what was previously a UCP riding in Calgary’s deep suburbs.

It’s often too easy and too foolish to treat the results of a single byelection as a predictor of a general election a year away, although darned if the partisans like Nenshi won’t try.

We’re likely on firmer ground trying to discern what a byelection says about the mood heading into the referendum about Alberta separation that’s set for five weeks from now.

Polls have consistently indicated that Albertans, especially in big cities, resoundingly support the “stay” option and oppose holding a future referendum for independence. 

Now, another indication, in the form of voting results. At least in Calgary-Shaw, the public mood has turned against Premier Danielle Smith and her United Conservatives, who thrust the province deeper into the unity debate by crafting and scheduling the Oct. 19 vote.

Shaw residents converted what was a 14-percentage-point UCP victory in the last election into a nearly four-point NDP byelection win. Of the 12 Calgary ridings that Smith’s party took in 2023, Shaw had the third-widest victory margin, a fact that might bring worry to UCP cabinet ministers and backbenchers in the city.