Alberta separatists expect a win, regardless of numbers that say otherwise, poll suggests | CBC News

Pollster also finds many support Option 2 for reasons other than full independence

Alberta separatists think they’re going to win a referendum that surveys suggest they are poised to lose by a wide margin, according to exclusive new polling. 

And that mismatch of expectations has consequences for what comes next — including the likelihood that Albertans shouldn’t expect this issue to be put to rest with this one vote, say the pollster and a political scientist.

Abacus Data CEO David Coletto presented the results of the new poll, done during the first week of September, to CBC’s West of Centre on Friday.

On Oct. 19, Albertans will vote on a question with two choices: Option 1 is to stay in Canada, while Option 2 supports commencing the legal process to hold a binding referendum on Alberta separation.

That ballot question will be in addition to nine others that focus on constitutional and immigration issues.

Coletto’s poll found 64 per cent of respondents would vote to remain a province in Canada and 24 per cent would vote to start the separation process. Nine per cent were undecided and three per cent said they would skip the question. 

But the poll also found that Option 2 supporters have surprisingly high expectations, believing that the separatist option will garner a winning 57 per cent of votes.

Coletto chalks it up to the political bubbles people live in and the natural hopefulness that comes with their strong support of the separatist camp.

Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, says that inflated expectation is worth noting — especially in the context of post-referendum ramifications.

"What he found, I think, should be setting off alarm bells in all of our heads," Young told West of Centre.

"If you do walk into this with the expectation that Option [2] is going to get 57 per cent and the actual outcome is 28 per cent ... the first question is going to be, 'Was this a proper result? Can we trust the outcome?'"