The mystery at the heart of Trump’s trade war

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There is no prominent think tank, industry or pundit that wants an all-out clash with Canada. So why is Trump obsessed?

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I spent Labor Day weekend in Montreal, and signs of the trade war were everywhere.

On Google Maps, which — at least until we crossed over the border — jarringly displayed the label “Lake America” where “Lake Ontario” used to be. Along Highway 2, which runs beside the St. Lawrence River, and where lawns sprouted signs with slogans like “Canada, strong and free.” On the TV in the hotel lobby, where a brisk CBC segment reported that Canadians overwhelmingly support Prime Minister Mark Carney’s retaliatory tariffs against the US.

Those tariffs, incidentally, went into effect this morning — targeting roughly $20 billion in US products.

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The levies are Canada’s response to the 50 percent tariffs that President Donald Trump slapped on Canadian goods in late August, after trade talks between the two countries collapsed. They’ll make it harder for American businesses to sell goods ranging from cheese to golf clubs in Canada, and they’ll make those goods more expensive for Canadians.

More worryingly, the new tariffs inflame an ugly dispute that, as I unpack more below, has no apparent upside for the US. President Donald Trump’s aggression toward our northern neighbor has both damaged the country’s international reputation and made life more expensive for average Americans.

Launching a trade war against America’s closest ally is self-evidently…unusual, let’s say. But the strangest thing about Trump’s campaign against Canada is how few people are riding this particular train.

No think tank is churning out anti-Canada papers. No industry is lobbying for 50% tariffs. No prominent influencer, even, has caught Trump’s eye with dreams of northern conquest.